Accelerating Future, Part 2
In part 1 of this series, I explained that exponential progress in computing has been going on for a long time. Gordon Moore saw the trend over 45 years ago, and industry experts believe it will continue for at least another decade or even much longer than that.
I also made the case that this trend is not limited to computing. Progress in other areas has driven the worldwide average standard of living much higher today than just 50 or 100 years ago. Humanity is better off [year after year] in just about every measurable material way.
Modern technology in the 3rd world. Used with permission by MarkKelley.
We are at a significant point in history. Great advances in computing, nanotech, biotech, robotics, energy, artificial intelligence and communications are occurring every day. Most do not make the mainstream news, but their cumulative effect will raise our standard of living more rapidly than ever before. I do not predict a completely Utopian future (we will discuss the increased dangers in a subsequent post), but I do believe most people will have the chance to live in far greater prosperity if we avoid the biggest risks.
Beginning with this post, I want to point out real world examples of accelerating change. I think you will see that Moore’s Law is not just an isolated trend confined to the world of geeks. It is something that will affect your life on multiple fronts, regardless of who you are.
Human genome printed, used with permission by JohnJobby
The fusion of health care and information technology – i.e. biotechnology – is experiencing exponential growth.
The fusion of health care and information technology – i.e. biotechnology – is one of many industries experiencing rapid and (by some measures) exponential growth.
Biotech could be the most promising and dangerous technology for humanity, but how soon will such things as personal DNA analysis and real time biometric monitoring become commonplace?
Consider the Human Genome Project (1990-2003): One billion DNA base pairs were sequenced in the first 4 years. Another billion base pairs were sequenced in the next 4 months and 1.5 billion base pairs were sequenced in the last 4 weeks. [source]
By the end of this year, you can have your entire genome sequenced for just $5000.00 and results will be ready in a few days. By 2014, genome sequencing is projected to cost less than a nice pair of jeans and results will be ready in about 8 hours.
years > months > weeks > days > hours
The first genome cost 2.7 billion US dollars. This price dropped to $2,000,000 by 2007 and $1000 is coming in 2009 or 2010.
$,$$$,$$$,$$$ billions > $,$$$,$$$ millions > $,$$$ thousands > $$$ hundreds
Does the promise of a biotech revolution sound like science fiction?
Personal computers (that calculate billions of instructions in one second) and personal GPS devices (that pull data from satellites 12,000 miles above the earth) would have sounded like science fiction only a few decades ago. Does the promise of a biotech revolution sound like science fiction today?
I’m excited about the rapid price drop in genome sequencing, and I’m especially looking forward to the breakthroughs in medicine that DNA analysis will bring. Once millions of people can afford this technology, we will have vast amounts of data to find new treatments on everything that ails us. But what about the risks? How will we deal with this information getting into the wrong hands? How will we protect our privacy and how will we prevent genetic discrimination? These issues have not been widely discussed, but you can bet the $100 genome will get lots of people talking.
UPDATE: May 11, 2009 — Singularity Hub is reporting on a real time, biometric monitoring device that is now FDA approved. Niche market today… mainstream tomorrow!
UPDATE: August 10, 2009 — Another benchmark has been reached : http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2009/08/human-genome-completed-using-one-machine-for-four-weeks.ars
Eagerly waiting for parts 3,4,5…
10/27/09 Update:
Researchers at Yale have sequenced the genome of a patient in order to diagnose his condition, reportedly for the first time. Richard Lifton and his team examined the protein encoding portion of an infant’s DNA to determine whether or not he had Bartter’s syndrome (he didn’t). Though still too expensive to use in everyday clinical work, Lifton has shown that whole genome analysis is an effective and relatively quick method to diagnose some diseases. We’re going to be seeing a lot more of this.
– from Singulartiy Hub
11/06/09 Update:
Complete Genomics has reached the $5000 cost benchmark before 2010 … just as expected.